Nigel Farage has been riding high since April 2025. That’s when Reform moved well ahead of the other parties, according to opinion polls. And it’s stayed there ever since. More people plan to vote for Reform than any other party once a general election comes.

It would make Reform the largest party in Parliament and, even if it doesn’t have an outright majority of MPs, it would almost certainly make Mr Farage prime minister. But the wheels could be falling off the Nigel Farage bandwagon. He faces three big threats that could keep him out of No 10.

The first is Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and her recent success in cutting immigration.

New figures last week suggested she’s actually winning the battle to control our borders, even if there’s a long way to go.

The number of asylum seekers in hotels stood at a new low of 20,885, down 35% compared to last year.

Net migration dropped to the lowest level since the Covid pandemic. It was 171,000 over the course of a year, down from a massive 944,000 in 2023.

Maybe these figures are still too high, but Ms Mahmood can argue that she’s sorting out the problem.

And if people start to have faith that the traditional parties can make a difference on this issue after all, it means there’s far less reason to take a chance on something new like Reform.

An even bigger problem is Andy Burnham.

If Mr Burnham can win his Makerfield by-election on June 18, he’s likely to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership – and for the job of prime minister.

It’s a contest he’s likely to win. And that could dramatically change what people think of Labour.

In fact, Labour could actually win the next election if Mr Burnham takes over.

One recent poll by More in Common found 22% of voters are planning to back Labour in a general election, with 29% supporting Reform.

But asked how they would vote if Andy Burnham were Labour leader, 30% would back Labour and just 27% would support Reform.

That’s partly because angry ex-Labour voters who have switched to the Greens or Liberal Democrats could return. There are also people who say they currently “don’t know” who they support but would back Labour if it were led by Burnham.

Of course, a lot could change depending on whether prime minister Andy does a good job or not.

And we don’t know if he will even win in Makerfield.

But he does seem to be the one Labour leader who could beat Farage.

The final obstacle in Mr Farage’s path is an inquiry by the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner, the official watchdog, into a £5million gift he received from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne.

MPs are supposed to register payments in the Commons Register of Members’ Interests. Mr Farage did not register this gift, because it was received before he became an MP. But Conservatives asked for an inquiry on the basis that it is covered by rules stating “new MPs must register all their current financial interests, and any registrable benefits (other than earnings) received in the 12 months before their election within one month of their election”.

Whatever the rights or wrongs of this case, it’s going to be a problem for Mr Farage if the Commissioner finds against him. Potential punishments would range from a written or oral apology to suspension from the Commons – or even expulsion.

There are supporters of Mr Farage who will insist he has done nothing wrong, whatever the Commissioner says. But some voters won’t be forgiving – and for many people, it just looks odd that somebody handed a politician £5million.

Add it all together, and the outcome of the next election looks far from certain.