People smugglers have slashed their prices to stop migrants from poorer countries storming boats crossing the Channel, intelligence has revealed. The National Crime Agency warned that a sharp increase in deaths in 2024 was down to asylum seekers “opportunistically” charging through the water and bundling onto boats, leading to those on the vessels being crushed.

But the crime kingpins have started “catering” to poorer migrants, mainly from the Horn of Africa, leading to lower “average crossing prices”. It comes as Border Force fears a surge in arrivals if Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood cannot agree a new funding deal with France. The National Crime Agency revealed: “2025 saw fewer migrant fatalities in the English Channel (27) compared with 2024 (78), highly likely due to intervention by rescue craft, alongside fewer incidents of groups of non-paying passengers opportunistically storming boats in the water, causing panic and instances of crushing or drowning.

“In order to prevent opportunistic boarding, organised crime groups increasingly catered to lower-paying nationalities in 2025, almost certainly contributing to lower estimated average crossing prices compared with 2024.”

Political chaos and war sparked an exodus of migrants from countries such as Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan, leading to sharp increases in nationals from these countries crossing the Channel.

And Ms Mahmood is facing a race against time to agree a new deal with Paris to pay for policing operations in northern France.

The last round of talks ended on Thursday without an agreement.

The Home Secretary is rumoured to be pushing for the new package, set to last until 2029, to be linked to France stopping more boats. A source said the Labour Cabinet minister wants “more bang for our buck”, with around two-thirds of crossings currently successful.

But a Home Office source said there were “multiple factors” delaying a deal, adding: “Negotiations are ongoing. We’re working right up to the deadline, but we’re determined to get an agreement that will work. But patrolling the beaches in the interim period is a matter for the French.”

A Home Office team is being sent to Paris this week to haggle over renewing Rishi Sunak’s £480million deal, which ends next Tuesday.

An official who worked on the previous deal told The Times: “It would make a bad situation even worse. One of the few good things about the efforts to stop small boats and smash the gangs is there has been effective and regular funding for the French.

“Negotiations can be pretty tetchy and end up being finalised later than you want. It’s rather like the EU talks, they go to the wire because of the money and a deal only gets finalised when ministers get involved.”

Lucy Moreton, professional officer at the Immigration Services Union, said: “It’s not in the French interest to do anything to deter the migrants from leaving France. They’re going in the right direction for the French, and we can’t blame them for that.

“If the French stop patrols, then on calm days we’ll see a significant increase in crossings and the more people that cross, the more dangerous it is because it’s statistically more likely that people die.”

Another former Home Office official who worked on previous agreements said: “The French always ask for more. They’re notorious for dragging this out until the last minute, but when push comes to shove, they’ll want the money, and it will be very hard for the British not to agree a deal, so it will get signed in the end.

“But there’ll be a worry that if it’s not sorted yet, then what happens to the patrols and drone support in the interim?”

Shocking analysis has revealed that two-thirds of crossings are successful, prompting calls for the Prime Minister to stop paying Paris.

New figures claim French authorities stopped 22,476 migrants from crossing to the UK.

But the vast majority of these are believed to be linked to dinghies sinking, their engines breaking down, overcrowding leading to chaos on the boats and bad weather.

Britain has given France £700million to bolster police patrols, increase surveillance and purchase new drones to detect migrants since 2018.

France has finally given police officers the power to stop dinghies in the water, but they have only done so once.

French officials have been accused of running a “life jacket delivery service” after vessels were spotted pulling alongside migrant dinghies to dish out the vests.