OPINION: Keir Starmer and Labour rebels are in a dangerous game of chicken over benefit cuts and I think the rebels will win
Keir Starmer attending the NATO summit in the Hague (Image: Getty)
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has told the House of Commons the Government will press ahead with a vote next week on benefit cuts that will hit 800,000 people with disabilities. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer previously said the same – even though more than 120 MPs are opposing the measure, enough for the Government to lose the vote.
I don’t think I believe them. The party whips, and Ms Rayner herself by all accounts, are doing everything they can do persuade rebel MPs to change their minds. And yes, if they succeed in winning over the dissidents then the vote will take place, and might be seen as a triumph for Starmer. But if he thinks he is going to lose the vote then he will cancel it.
That would be a humiliation, but it wouldn’t be half as bad as having a Minister stand up in the Chamber of the Commons and insist the benefit cuts are essential only for Labour MPs to join forces with the Tories and vote against them.
It sounds a bit silly when you say it out loud, but the fact is that the Government will insist the vote is happening until the moment that they announce they have cancelled it.
Right now, the party leadership and Labour backbenchers are engaged in a game of chicken. Of course, Sir Keir would love to convince his backbenchers to support the cuts to Personal Independence Payments and who knows, maybe he will (although I doubt it). Perhaps he will find some sort of compromise which his MPs can support, such as delaying the cuts or ensuring they don’t affect quite so many people.
But the other argument the party leadership is using is about the dire political consequences of defeating the government. Whips are not playing down the humiliation Sir Keir would suffer – they are talking it up.
The message to backbench Labour MPs goes something like this: “The Tories would be laughing! The Prime Minister would look stupid! He might have to resign! There could be an emergency general election! Do you really want to be responsible for that?”
That’s why the leadership has to be adamant the vote will happen. They know it would be a disaster for them, but one of their strongest weapons is actually the threat of disaster. After all, Labour MPs may hate benefit cuts but they still want a Labour government.
Rebel MPs, on the other hand, are hoping the Government will back down gracefully. They don’t demand that the cuts are scrapped entirely, at least not officially. They would be more than happy for the Government to say they have been delayed so that more research can be carried out, as long as that delay turns out to be permanent.
So Sir Keir, Ms Rayner and other senior members of the Government need to convince rebel MPs that a gracious climb-down is not on the cards. Their message is that it’s all or nothing. Do what you’re told or take the blame for destroying a Labour government and helping the Tories, is their message.
It’s not true. Sir Keir is far too clever to let his Government collapse over this. If he can’t win the vote – and the whips will probably be able to tell him in advance whether he can or not – he’s most likely to cancel it, whatever he says today.
