Keir Starmer is the most unpopular new Prime Minister in history and it is only going to get worse. It is astonishing that the one year anniversary of his premiership is dominated by speculation about his political survival. The PM’s reputation as a decent but dull safe pair of hands is long gone but, more crucially, his authority is in tatters.

Few voters would be sad to see him go as there was little enthusiasm for him before the series of catastrophes that he besieged his first year. First impressions count, and the first impression Starmer gave when he entered No 10 was that he was oblivious to concerns of the country. Free Gear Keir was taking clothes, expensive specs and concert tickets for himself while taking winter fuel payments off pensioners.

Figures released this week show Starmer was the biggest recipient of UK hospitality over the last year, declaring £11,170 worth of football tickets. Since the election, the total for events and gifts he has received has hit £17,344.

We had been told repeatedly the “grown ups” were back in charge but it turns out our prime minister could not even dress himself without a little help from his close pal Lord Ali. The political equivalent of a hapless middle-aged man whose mum still buys his underpants for him.

On the world stage, Starmer has represented the country well. But domestically it has been a disaster. Labour’s mantra throughout the general election was “don’t drop the Ming vase”, which essentially boils down to don’t do anything that will scare off voters. What was the point of all that care and caution if on the other side you just smash it to smithereens?

Polls began to measure a leader’s popularity when Neville Chamberlain was in No 10. No election-winning premier has been as disliked one year in as Starmer, with pollster Peter Kellner finding the PM is “by far the worst” in terms of losing popularity.

So what happens next? There are only two options on the horizon and neither are good.

Starmer limps on as a hostage to the Left of his party, presiding over an ever increasing welfare state funded by higher taxes.

Or Angela Rayner takes over and presides over an even bigger welfare state and even higher taxes. Backbenchers have forced Starmer into backing down on benefit reforms despite his huge majority.

They will do it again and again, with the two child benefit cap inevitably set to be lifted for starters. It will be easy to do because Starmer stands for nothing. He spent four years as Leader of the Opposition plotting how to get power but it seems not one minute was dedicated to what he would do once he got there.

Remaining aloof from his MPs means they feel no loyalty to him so rebelling is less of a leap.

It is something he has in common with the political opponent he loathes the most – Boris Johnson. Johnson was not the best at winning loyalty from colleagues for reasons many and varied although essentially all the same. People like to feel valued.

When you are winning, MPs will put up with a lot, but unpopular with the country plus unpopular with the party equals a visit to the job centre. As Johnson said when he quit: “When the herd moves, it moves.”

Labour is famously useless at moving to oust a useless leader but Starmer has huge numbers of MPs who have no personal loyalty to him and are more than capable of reading the polls and what it means for their seat.

But even if they did show some steel, or Starmer realised he was dragging the party down and quit, the outcome would be even worse. Ed Miliband is consistently the most popular member of the Cabinet with party members, but after his last stint as leader it seems he has been relieved of the burden of ambition.

Rayner is just a few points behind. After that there is a large drop off in the numbers before Lisa Nandy pops up. Health Secretary Wes Streeting, seen by many as the most likely to appeal to the wider public, is more unpopular with Labour’s grassroots than Starmer. Beleaguered Rachel Reeves is at the bottom of the rankings.

Labour’s leadership nomination process is complex but on each element Rayner would sail through. A self-described socialist who has repeatedly called Tories “scum”, her instincts are far more radical than Starmer.

Either outcome means the country faces four more years of left wing chaos. Things can only get worse.