Immediately following the US attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend, British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Defence Secretary John Healey were quick to issue their statements that the UK had not been directly involved. The truth is, however, that the UK has been involved in the Israel–Iran–Hezbollah–Hamas-Houthis wars for some considerable time already. And this has not only involved RAF Typhoon aircraft helping to knock down Iranian drones heading towards Israel in past attacks, but also by providing logistical support to the USA’s line of communications from America to Europe and the Middle East.

USAF air bases in the UK, like RAF Lakenheath for example, and civil airports like Glasgow Prestwick, ironically owned and operated by the notoriously anti-Israel, pro-Palestine Scottish government (and where Elvis famously landed on his only visit to Britain on his way back from his stint of national service with the US Army in Germany), provide stopovers for US military transatlantic traffic.

Plus there are the British Sovereign base areas in Cyprus, with RAF Akrotiri providing a similar stopover, and where there is also an important joint UK GCHQ/US NSA listening station in the eastern part of the island at Ayios Nikolaos.

So the UK defence of “it wisnae me, it was a big boy” doesn’t wash. Iran will not have missed the obvious connections, and the UK is directly in the firing line of however Tehran decides to respond to the US strikes. The so called “special relationship” can be a two-edged sword.

Iran has a number of options here, of course. It can choose to do nothing and risk being seen as weak both within its own population and across the Arab world. Or it could bide its time until the US/Israeli/UK heightened defence postures relax, or it can choose to counterattack in some meaningful way – I don’t mean just lobbing a few missiles at Israel from time to time – straight away.

So, what form might any of these take, and how might they impact on Britain? The most obvious action, and the one that Tehran has already threatened, is to close the Strait of Hormuz and attack naval and commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, possibly using its Houthi proxies to do the latter. These would affect UK, and international, trade routes.

Closing the Strait is likely to bring immediate counter action from the USA, backed overtly or covertly by numerous allies including the Gulf states, for much of their commerce has to transit that narrow stretch of international waters. Doing so would also disrupt Iran’s own commercial import and extract traffic, although it does have alternative routes.

As for Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, well, these would be nothing new, but the rebels’ capacity for doing so has been significantly degraded by previous US/Israeli/Saudi actions. And they would leave themselves once again open to fearsome counter strikes.

There is a possibility of Iranian strikes against the British bases on Cyprus. These are within range of ballistic missiles from Iran itself, but also of weaponry supplied by Tehran to Hezbollah, although their potential has been severely degraded by Israeli actions against them in sought Lebanon.

But it should be noted that the UK has no credible anti-ballistic missile defence in Cyprus and might have to rely on US and Israeli assets for its security in this context. At a pinch Britain could station one of its T45 air defence destroyers off the Cypriot coast, but what else would they then not be able to do and how many are operational anyway? Answer: two out of six.

There could well be general terrorist attacks against UK interests and citizens around the world. This has to be taken seriously, and the evacuation of British nationals from the Middle East, which has already started, amply demonstrates this.

Then there is the very real threat of terrorist attacks on the UK mainland. MI5 reportedly recently disrupted an Iranian terrorist plot in England “at the very last minute”, and it is highly likely that there are other terrorist sleeper cells already in-country and waiting to be activated. Plus who knows what’s coming across the Channel in the small boats?

So Britain, whether it likes it or not, is already on the front line of the war against Iran, and Starmer’s appeals for de-escalation are likely to fall on deaf ears in Tehran.

The UK clearly needs to rapidly look at its self defence both at home and abroad. The recently published Strategic Defence Review and its guiding spending constraints have been rendered obsolete, overtaken by events almost before the ink is dry.

Decisive action to sort out Britain’s defences is required immediately. Is Starmer the man for the job?