Lee Anderson has welcomed polling showing Reform UK ahead of Plaid Cymru, Labour, and the Conservatives in Wales. Find Out Now’s latest Senedd voting intention poll put Reform at 29%, Plaid at 27%, Labour trailing at 18%, and the Tories languishing at 11%.

Mr Anderson took to social media to highlight Reform’s polling success, observing, “Leading in Wales… And we’ve not even started campaigning yet.” In just two words, he warned, “Get ready,” followed by three Welsh flag emojis.

The next Welsh Parliament election is due on May 7 next year. A seat projection from public affairs firm, Cavendish Cymru, puts Reform on 34 seats, Plaid on 30, Labour with 21, the Conservatives on eight, Lib Dems on two and Greens with one.

Cavendish Cymru’s projection sees the Liberal Democrats winning an extra seat in Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf. The analysis also shows the Green Party winning its first-ever Senedd seat in Caerdydd Penarth.

Labour has dominated Welsh politics for decades, but the outlook now is far less certain. The party has led every Government since 1999, but only in coalition with Plaid or the Lib Dems.

The next Welsh Parliament should better reflect the proportion of votes won by each party, partly due to a rise in the number of members from 60 to 96.

Previous polls from Survation and Beaufort Research put Labour just ahead of Reform and Plaid. A third poll by Cardiff University and ITV Wales in April put Plaid on 30%, Reform on 25%, and Labour on 18%.

Professor Richard Wyn Jones, a politics expert at Cardiff University, told the BBC last month that it would be “utterly seismic” if Labour weren’t the largest party in Wales.

Labour secured 27 out of 32 seats in Wales at the General Election in July last year. Reform finished second in 13 constituencies.

However, a controversial 20mph speed limit, NHS waiting times, and the ousting of former Welsh Labour leader Vaughan Gething have fuelled voter frustration with the party.

Only 40% of Welsh people who voted Labour at the 2024 General Election say they will back Sir Keir Starmer‘s party in its campaign for a seventh term in Cardiff Bay, according to a YouGov/ITV Wales voting intention poll published in May.

25% backed Plaid Cymru’s bid to take the reins of the Welsh government, while 8% switched to the Lib Dems, 5% moved to Reform UK, and 4% to the Greens. One in eight (12%) say they don’t know who they’d vote for at a future Senedd election, according to the YouGov/ITV Wales poll.