The by-election in the north west constituency could be one of the most historic the UK has ever seen
Ashton-in-Makerfield high street, part of the Makerfield constituency (Image: Getty)
The battle for Makerfield is no ordinary by-election. Andy Burnham, currently the mayor of Greater Manchester, is standing as Labour’s candidate in an effort to return to Parliament as an MP. If he wins, then he is expected to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership, although he may not launch his bid immediately.
It means this by-election could help decide who runs the country as Prime Minister. But Mr Burnham faces a challenge from Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, who are going all-out to win the seat and stop his leadership ambitions in their tracks. To make the contest even more interesting, Reform is fighting a battle against Restore Britain, the party led by Rupert Lowe, Mr Lowe, the MP for Great Yarmouth, used to be a Reform MP but had a spectacular falling out with Mr Farage and now leads his own party.
Restore Britain has picked up support on social media, and could succeed in taking votes away from Reform, paving the way for a Burnham victory.
The Makerfield by-election will take place on June 18 and opinion polls in advance of the vote will give us some clues about who could win.
Latest betting odds for Makerfield
Odds for William Hill on May 27 show a clear expectation that Labour will win the fight.
Burnham is 4/11 on to take the seat.
Reform is 5/2 while Restore are in third place at 8/1.
The Greens and Conservatives are strong outsiders at 250/1.
May 23 – Survation poll
The first poll in the run-up to the by-election was published by Survation on May 23. It shows Labour slightly ahead – but Reform and Restore’s combined vote would be enough to win, if all those voters could be convinced to back the same party.
Labour: 43%
Reform UK: 40%
Restore Britain: 7%
Liberal Democrats: 4%
Green: 3%
Conservative: 2%
Survation polled 504 adults in the constituency between 18 and 22 May 2026.
Andy Burnham is the current favourite to win at Makerfield (Image: Getty)
Who is standing for each party?
Jake Austin, Liberal Democrats
A Stockport councillor who stood in the Greater Manchester mayoral election in 2024.
Count Binface, Count Binface Party
By-election veteran Count Binface, once known as Lord Buckethead, is a satirical candidate
Andy Burnham, The Labour Party
Andy Burnham is a former Health Secretary and Shadow Home Secretary, and currently serves as Greater Manchester mayor
Dan Clarke, The Libertarian Party
John Dyer, Independent
Ed Gemmell, Climate Party
Paul Gould, Independent
Alan ‘Howlin’ Laud Hope, The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Alan Hope, otherwise known as Alan “Howlin” Laud Hope, is leader of the party founded with 1960s popstar Screaming Lord Sutch
Robert Kenyon, Reform UK
Robert Kenyon is a self-employed plumber and stood in the constituency in the 2024 general election
Robert Pownall, Independent
Rebecca Shepherd, Restore Britain
Rebecca Shepherd is a businesswoman
Sarah Wakefield, Green Party
Sarah Wakefield is a councillor on Manchester City Council. She was chosen after the Greens’ first candidate, Chris Kennedy, withdrew from the race.
Peter Ward, Rejoin EU
Michael Winstanley, The Conservative Party
Michael Winstanley is a former mayor of Wigan
